Yılmaz: Leading Indicators for the Fourth Quarter Indicate the Balance Has Reached Desired Levels
Forex - The Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz stated that leading indicators for the fourth quarter suggest that the desired level of stabilization has been reached, and there may be some recovery in demand conditions due to the contributions of both internal and external factors. Yılmaz made this statement regarding the GDP figures announced today by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).
Yılmaz said: "According to TÜİK data, the Turkish economy grew by 3.6% on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2024, converging with the annual growth forecast we indicated in the Medium-Term Program. Our growth performance has continued uninterrupted for 17 quarters within the framework of political stability and predictability. In the Turkish economy, a growth rate of 2.1% was realized in the third quarter of 2024. Seasonally and calendar adjusted economic growth recorded a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. Our economy grew by 3.2% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.
In the growth of the third quarter of 2024, in addition to the delayed effects of tight monetary and fiscal policies, it is assessed that weak external demand conditions, which caused a decline in industrial production and export performance, were decisive. When we consider the GDP realizations for 2024 from the perspective of expenditures, public consumption expenditures decreased after austerity measures, while the contribution of domestic demand to growth fell to -0.1 percentage points, and the contribution of net exports to growth was 2.2 percentage points due to the slowdown in imports.
The contribution of net goods and services exports to growth has provided a positive contribution to growth in this quarter, as it did throughout 2024, being decisive in the composition's stabilization. When evaluated from the production side, the construction-included services sector recorded growth of 2.9% in the third quarter of 2024, while the agricultural sector grew by 4.6%, and the industrial sector faced a decline of 2.2% due to weak external demand conditions.
In this context, leading indicators for the fourth quarter indicate that the desired level of stabilization has been reached, and there may be some recovery in demand conditions due to the contributions of both internal and external factors. We continue to grow our economy on a foundation that focuses on investment, employment, production, and exports while contributing to the fight against inflation. As a result of the economic program we have implemented with strong political will and coordination, the current account deficit continues to decrease, our reserves are strengthening, our risk premium is falling, and unemployment remains at single-digit levels.
We aim to achieve price stability and inclusive growth with a permanent increase in welfare by continuing to implement our Medium-Term Program covering the 2025-2027 period with determination."