Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Cut Interest Rates? Latest Market Updates, Macro Trends, and Sector Developments

Macroeconomic Agenda
According to the survey of market participants, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to lower the policy interest rate by 150 basis points in December. The year-end inflation expectation for 2024 has been increased to 45.3%, and for 2025, it is forecasted at 27.2%.

US PCE Data: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation reached an annual rate of 2.4% in November. Core PCE remained stable at an annual rate of 2.8%. The Federal Reserve's core PCE forecast for 2024 has been updated to 2.8%.

European PPI Data: In Germany, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reaching its first positive level since June 2023.

Market Update
Dollar/TL: Slightly increased to 35.20.
Euro/TL: Rose to 36.84.
BIST 100: Closed at 9,725 with a weekly loss of 4%. Technical analysis indicates that a decline below 9,870 is expected to continue. As of 1:30 PM, it is trading at 9,727 points.
Gram Gold: Showed a limited weekly decrease at 2,978 TL.

US Treasuries: The 10-year yield fell to 4.52%, while the 2-year bond yield stood at 4.31%.

Sectoral Developments
Defense Industry: Financing projects aimed at easing cash flows have been announced with over $1 billion in credit support.
Automotive: Installment restrictions on high-value vehicle purchases have been regulated.
Technology: A three-month maturity limit has been introduced for refurbished mobile phones priced above 25,000 TL.

Global Outlook
US Markets: Following the PCE data, the S&P 500 rose by 1.1%. The VIX index declined to 18.4.
Asian Markets: A bullish trend continues. The Nikkei 225 shows a slight decline at 38,702.

Future Expectations
CBRT Interest Rate Decision: The market's main focus on Thursday.

Christmas Holiday: Midweek holidays in the US and Europe may reduce market volume.